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An estimate to complete, or ETC, forecasts the additional cost of finishing the remaining project work. It is not the money already spent. PMI’s earned-value guidance distinguishes ETC, actual cost and estimate at completion. A bottom-up review of unfinished deliverables often gives a small freelance team a more useful forecast than simply subtracting spending from the original budget and assuming the rest will be enough.
List remaining work before estimating it
Review unfinished deliverables, known corrections, reviews, testing and handover. Identify work that was omitted from the original plan and whether it belongs in the approved scope. Ask the people responsible for the work to assess effort and dependencies. Treat unapproved requests separately so the forecast does not silently expand the engagement.
Apply current assumptions consistently
Estimate remaining hours, rates and relevant external costs. State whether taxes, contingency or client-funded expenses are included. Do not count incurred costs twice. Where uncertainty is significant, present a range or scenarios rather than an unsupported exact amount. Keep assumptions about availability and rework visible alongside the financial estimate.
Connect ETC to the total forecast
Under consistent cost definitions, estimate at completion equals actual cost plus ETC. Compare that forecast with the approved budget to identify a potential gap. Formula-based earned-value forecasts can be useful in suitable projects, but depend on their assumptions and progress measures. Do not apply a formula without explaining why its assumptions fit the work.
A practical checklist
- Inventory unfinished scope and required acceptance work.
- Identify unapproved changes separately.
- Estimate remaining effort and external costs.
- Record uncertainty and avoid double-counting.
- Combine actual cost and ETC into the total forecast.
Worked example
Illustrative example: remaining design costs $600, implementation $1,200 and testing $400. ETC is $2,200. With actual cost of $1,800, the total forecast is $4,000. If the approved budget was $3,600, the forecast exceeds it by $400. These are hypothetical planning values, not recommended rates or a prediction for your project.
Common questions
Is ETC equal to BAC minus actual cost? That subtraction shows budget remaining, not necessarily the cost of remaining work. Does ETC include completed work? No. How often should it change? Review it when meaningful progress, scope or cost assumptions change.
What to do next
Use the forecast to choose an action: clarify scope, improve delivery, add approved resources or renegotiate an agreed constraint. Do not revise numbers merely to make a report look on budget. A candid forecast creates time to respond before the work is finished.